Staying home saves lives

New state-based modelling shows staying at home and other physical distancing requirements are working to slow the spread of Coronavirus, saving thousands of Victorian lives.

The modelling, undertaken by Monash University and the Doherty Institute, in collaboration with epidemiology experts in the Department of Health and Human Services, finds that if no physical distancing restrictions were in place, Victoria would have seen up to 58,000 new Coronavirus cases every day at the peak of the pandemic, overwhelming our health system.

The data also reveals that if a business-as-usual approach had been adopted, 10,000 intensive care beds would have been required and as many as 9,200 Victorians would have been presenting to the hospital every single day. Tragically, it also shows the immense human cost of the pandemic, with as many as 36,000 Victorians possibly dying – that’s averaging 70 lives lost every day and up to 650 deaths in a day during the peak.

Thanks to current restrictions and the overwhelming number of Victorians doing the right thing, the modelling confirms that our curve is flattening. Together, our actions have made a real difference and slowed the spread of Coronavirus in Victoria.

The modelling shows that if the restrictions were lifted too soon, Coronavirus would spread rapidly through our community, overwhelming the health system and putting everything we have achieved at risk.

Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews said, “With Victorians doing the right thing and staying home, we’ve been able to slow the spread of the virus – if we stay the course and don’t get complacent, we will get through this together.”

Any decision to ease restrictions after the current State of Emergency will be informed by public health experts and modelling, combined with international experience.

The modelling can be found here at www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au