THE northern Victoria Resource Manager recently updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.
The Murray system moves from 78 percent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 82 percent HRWS. The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 70 percent HRWS to 74 percent HRWS. The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases by 2 percent HRWS to 11 percent HRWS. The Bullarook system increases from 100 percent HRWS and 25 percent low‑reliability water shares (LRWS) to 100 percent HRWS and 51 percent LRWS. The Campaspe system remains at 100 percent HRWS.
Resource manager, Dr Mark Bailey said the modest improvements came from a combination of more water reaching the major storages than was estimated and lower than expected system losses in some systems.
“While flows into the major storages have been marginally higher than anticipated since the last seasonal determination update, they have been well below-average for this time of season and the catchments continue to dry with very little recent rainfall,” Dr Bailey said.
Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks continue to favour drier conditions.
“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall is more likely across all of northern Victoria during the October to December period,” Dr Bailey said.
“The bureau also says there is a 50 percent chance that an El Niño event will develop in spring and the threshold for a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has been exceeded. Both an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole typically reduces rainfall in south-eastern Australia.”
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, October 1 were:
| Water System | High-Reliability Water Share | Low-Reliability Water Share |
| Murray | 82% | 0% |
| Broken | 11% | 0% |
| Goulburn | 74% | 0% |
| Campaspe | 100% | 0% |
| Loddon | 74% | 0% |
| Bullarook | 100% | 51% |
