No matter how you look at it, Kyabram is the favourite for this weekend’s Goulburn Valley League senior football grand final. You’ve probably heard the term “on paper” — well, in this case at least, that’s pretty much my only source of information.
As a team, the Bombers lost the three points that separate them from a perfect line-up in the Defence and On the Ground categories. They scored 5/5 for Offence, being the only team to score more than 2000 points this season (averaging over 100 points per game), and were also perfect in Contested and In the Air categories. They lead all marking categories and are the number one team in the GVL for contested possessions.
I marked them 3/5 for Defence, as they are only the equal third-ranked team in this category for 2025 (behind Rochester and Echuca, and equal with the Bears). They also received 4/5 for On the Ground, where they trail some of those same teams in Loose Ball Gets and Hard Ball Gets.
On an individual basis, two players in the Kyabram team (by my rating system) finished with Perfect 10s for the season — Mick Mattingly and Aidan Robinson. Mattingly is the standout midfielder, and Robinson is the ultimate captain: a key defender, a capable ruckman, and a forward who can win the game off his own boot.
The reason Kyabram is such a raging premiership favourite is that eight players (again, only according to me) have had 9/10 seasons — running defender Brad Whitford (despite playing just 12 games); forwards Barnett, Ironside, and Holman; ruckman Norris after a year on the sidelines; teenager Archie Watt; and gun recruit (and reigning Murray League medallist) Jack Russell.
Rochester lost just twice during the home-and-away season — to Kyabram by 62 points (by far their biggest loss of the year) in Round 11, and by nine points to the Shepparton Swans in Round 5. Due to their defensive focus, there haven’t been many blowouts. In fact, against lower-ranked teams, they’ve often appeared to do “just enough” to get over the line.
They beat Seymour by 79 points in Round 1, but in Rounds 2 and 3 were only seven-point and 15-point winners against non-finalists Mooroopna and Euroa. Another big score came in Round 4 — an 86-point win against Mansfield — but that was followed by a series of close games. Their biggest win was against Tatura (by 138 points), but they only managed to beat Shepparton United by nine points, Seymour by nine, Euroa by three, and Shepparton by 10.
Throw in a draw with Mansfield in Round 15, and it’s lucky Ash Watson is such a cool character — these results would test the patience of most team mentors. Former Port Melbourne player Drew Lloyd has given Rochester’s midfield a boost since arriving in Round 10, but the team has remained largely unchanged over the past two years, apart from his injection into the line-up.
Stats That Matter
Kyabram has five players in the top 20 goalkickers for the season; Rochester has just two.
Rochester leads the hard ball gets count, with Kyabram sitting fourth — but the Bombers average 11 more uncontested possessions per game than the Tigers.
Kyabram ranks first for kicks, while Rochester is seventh. Rochester is first for handballs, with Kyabram second.
Kyabram takes four more marks per game inside 50 than the Tigers.
Prediction: Kyabram by 31 points.
