QUALIFYING FINAL
KYABRAM v ROCHESTER
Kyabram’s last six weeks have told two very different tales – facing off against three of the bottom four teams between Rounds 13–15 and then confronting the teams sitting 3rd, 4th, and now 5th in the final three weeks. The end result was just as eclectic, combined wins of 350 points against Tatura, Benalla, and United, followed by their only two losses of the year in Rounds 16 and 18. They lost by one point to Mansfield after storming home with five goals to two in the final quarter and then trailed from start to finish against the Swans. In that game, the Swans kicked eight first-quarter goals and led by 33 points at the first break. The rest of the game was tame in comparison, the Swans winning the next two quarters six goals to three before another late Kyabram charge. The Bombers kicked six goals from 11 scoring shots in the final term to eventually lose by 34 points. It was only the fifth time in 18 games that the Bombers had not scored 100+ points, and in two of those they finished in the nineties. Here are some points of concern, although on reflection they may be a little unfair on the individuals concerned. In the last two weeks, Charlie Barnett has kicked one goal, but prior to that he had been nothing short of sensational – kicking four goals or more in 10 of the preceding 16 games. Riley Ironside has kicked just one goal in the last three weeks, having bagged 43 in the 15 games before this out-of-form run. Rochester has the best defence in the competition – the only team not to have allowed opposition clubs to kick 1000 points against them in the 18 home and away games. Only one team, the Bombers in Round 11 (107 points), has managed to kick 100+ points in a game against the Tigers. And that took an eight-goal final term after Kyabram led by just 15 points at three-quarter time.
Prediction: Kyabram by 21 points.
ELIMINATION FINAL #2
MANSFIELD v SHEPPARTON BEARS
Neither of these clubs has been super impressive at both ends of the ground, so it will come down to their midfield battle to decide who gets to continue in the race for the 2025 GVL title. Mansfield has the second-best offensive unit but is ranked well behind all of the remaining five finals combatants when it comes to defence. They have given up almost 300 more points than the best defence, Rochester, and 100 more than the Swans’ defence. Shepparton does both at a “middle of the road level”, having the fourth best attack and the 4th best offence. They have only has one team score 100 points or more against them, in Round 5 against Echuca. Bears star Luke Smith makes a big difference when he is up and going. He didn’t play in last year’s one sided grand final, but is going into this finals series on a hot streak – the Bears only top 10 ranked player for 2025. The Bears’ season has been far from smooth sailing – winning their first four games by 101, 87, 74, and 39 points before losing five straight games to four of the other top six teams. Since a Round 10 bye, however, they have lost just once – to Mansfield by 15 points. They will go into the Mansfield game confident that ruckman Ash Holland can give them an advantage and that their defensive leaders – Ted Lindon and Bryce Stephenson—can break even with the likes of Hugh Byrne and Liam Tenace. Mansfield has only nine players ranked in the top 100 in the league, three fewer than ladder leader Kyabram and one less than the Bears. The Eagles’ highest-ranked player this year is Matthew King (these rankings are solely based on statistical output). King is ranked 7th, with Nick Gray ranked 14th and Callum Brown 27th—all midfielders. Apart from their leading goalkicker, Billy Hogan (54 goals and ranked 36th), and intercept defender Dirk Koenen (31st), they do not feature again until the 70s. For the Bears, the freakish Luke Smith is ranked number 6, with ruckman Ash Holland at 17. There are another eight Bears ranked inside the top 100, with high-possession, goalkicking forward Lewis McShane at number 19, while co-coaches Ted Lindon and Xavier Stevenson are both in the top 40. Mansfield has been the form team of the second half of 2025. They won their first three games but lost to Kyabram (1st), Rochester (2nd), and Echuca (4th) in the next month. Since that Round 7 game, they have won 10 games and had the only draw of the season—with Rochester. When these teams have played each other it has been Mansfield in control, leading from start to finish in Round 6 this year when they recorded a 17 point win on the back of vice captain Tom Dunstan’s best game of the year and three goals from Hogan.
Prediction: Mansfield by 7 points.
ELIMINATION FINAL #1
ECHUCA v SHEPPARTON SWANS
Four years ago Echuca started an amazing run that broke a 20 year premiership drought, winning the 2022 GVL senior title and then completing a hat-trick in the next two years. This year has been far from perfect, injuries to stars have caused them no end of trouble, but never write a champion off and while they may be limping into the finals series – they are there, and anything could happen. Since COVID saw the 2020 season abandoned the club has won 11 out of 12 titles in the three football grades. They go into this season again with all three teams represented, but in the unusual position of not being favourite in any of those grades. If you compare Echuca’s 2024 premiership team to the one that beat Mooroopna by 107 points on the weekend, there are just 10 familiar faces: Sam Reid, Cam Valentine, Hugh Byrne, Jackson Stewart, Aiden Mills, Lachlan Watson, Mitch Wales, Riley Smith, Liam Tenace, and Baxter Slater. They face a challenge in the Swans that was underlined by the team’s final round domination of Kyabram. The Swans are the third-best defence but are fifth when it comes to offensive work. Their season has been up and down, to say the very least—winning the first seven games, losing four of the next six, and then beating the top team in the final round. For the Swans, unsurprisingly, ball magnet Nathan Hrovat (who has a 257 ranking point game to his credit this season) is their top-ranked player at number 8, and his partner in crime – ruckman Mark Kovacevic – is next best at number 15. From there, however, it isn’t until number 55 that the Swans next rate a mention – through defender Kade Anderson. They have six players ranked from positions 79 to 96. What is really surprising is that the Echuca team has the lowest number of players ranked inside the Top 100 of any finals combatant this season – just five. While the rankings aren’t totally indicative of player impact, they do show that the Murray Bombers have been missing some significant star power this year. At number 27 (ask any of his opponents and he would be ranked much higher than that) is Sam Reid, the first Echuca player to get a mention. Captain Mitch Wales is the 25th-ranked player in the GVL (by the ranking points system), and Hugh Byrne comes in at number 39. From there, however, it is just Jackson Stewart (47) and Riley Smith (93) who are in the top 100. Statistically, there is very little separating these two teams. The Swans have scored just 76 more points than Echuca points in 18 games this season and when it comes to defence there is just 80 points separating the pair. That’s close! When the teams played for the only time this year, in Round 8, just six goals were scored in the first three quarters, five of them by Echuca. They led by 23 points and ended up winning up three goals in a low scoring game. Oliver Warburton, who started the season in great form, was BOG and Sam Reid was at his fearless best for the winning Murray Bombers. Now injured Jack Evans was also great in the win.
Prediction: Echuca by 11 points.
