BOM drops the heat bomb
BRACE yourself for a hot and dry summer! The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has predicted below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures for much of Australia, including our region, from December to February. This means we’re 2.5 times more likely to experience unusually high temperatures, comparable to the warmest 20% of periods from 1981 to 2018.
This long-range forecast is influenced by several significant climate drivers, including an active El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). El Niño, persisting in the tropical Pacific, typically results in drier conditions and warmer days across eastern Australia. The positive IOD, likely to continue into early December, usually means less rainfall for central and south-east Australia.
Australia’s climate has warmed by approximately 1.48 °C since 1910, leading to more frequent extreme heat events. The BOM’s climate model, which simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice, and land surface processes, uses millions of observations from satellites and in-situ instrumentation. This allows it to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers in its forecasts.
As we prepare for the hot and dry conditions ahead, let’s make the most of summer. It’s the perfect time to enjoy our beautiful natural scenery.
Remember to stay hydrated, protect your skin from the sun, and check on your neighbours, especially the elderly. Despite the heat, our community’s spirit remains unscorched. Let’s embrace the warmth, stay safe, and enjoy the unique experiences that a Shepparton summer has to offer.
