Shepp Swans v Tatura
A percentage-boosting win against Tatura this weekend should be enough to lock the Swans into the GVL finals. A three-game buffer on 7th-ranked Seymour guarantees their spot in September. But let’s not get too confident just yet. Tatura produced its best defensive effort of the season last Saturday. It was the first time this year the Bulldogs kept their opposition under 100 points and the first time they lost by fewer than 10 goals. They actually won several statistical categories, including total disposals and total marks, and claimed the uncontested disposal count by 44. They now face a Swans team fresh from a 73-point win against Mooroopna—a welcome return to form after their upset loss to Seymour the previous week. The Swans’ rollercoaster season continues: after starting 7-0, they’ve lost five of their past six. Their final three games include top-three teams Rochester and Kyabram, so they’ll be keen to lock in their finals spot early. Mark Kovacevic turned in another best-on-ground performance with 189 ranking points—two goals, 39 hit-outs, 11 clearances, and 27 disposals. James Auld kicked six goals (28 for the season so far after 15 in 2024), while high-leaping Nagambie recruit Jonno Moore added three—doubling his season tally in just one game. Auld also ranks second in Forward 50 tackles this year, behind Rochester’s Hugh Hamilton. Harrison Mazella supported well with 20 disposals, six tackles, three goals, and five Inside 50 entries for a 126-point performance. The Swans forwards will get chances against a Tatura side that, until last weekend, had conceded nearly 140 points per game. Prediction: Swans by 141 points.
LTTM: Round 4, 2025: Swans won by 72 points
Seymour v Euroa
Seymour must win all of its final four home and away games and rely on Shepp Swans or Shepp Bears having at least one unexpected loss to have any chance of making this year’s GVL finals. The Lions’ 39-point loss to Mansfield on Saturday looks like it was the last nail in the coffin, even if things go their way in the final month. The Jack Murphy-led team sits 7th, three wins behind the Bears (5th) and Swans (6th). Seymour should win at least three of its final four games (Euroa, Shepp United, Tatura) and might even win all four (they play the Bears in the last round, who they beat by 16 points in Round 7), but even that might not be enough. Shepp Swans has a percentage 70% better than Seymour, and the Bears’ percentage is even higher. The Swans would need to lose to either Euroa or Tatura (along with Rochester and Kyabram) for the Lions to be a chance. The Bears should also win at least one of their final four games (against Mooroopna), but face Echuca, Mansfield and the Lions in the other games. No doubt Euroa will be keen to make all these formulas irrelevant by ending the Lions’ season this weekend. The Magpies ran Rochester to within three points last weekend, having lost by just 15 points to the 3rd ranked team in Round 3. This weekend has a number of highlights, with three of the most prolific statistical category leaders going up against one another – Euroa’s Lachlan Hill and Seymour pair, Murphy and Nathan Beattie. Prediction: Seymour by 28 points. LTTM: Round 4, 2025: Seymour won by 48 points
Shepparton v Mooroopna
A fifth game against a non-finals team this weekend will give Shepp Bears the chance to further hone their game plan in preparation for back-to-back games against teams above them on the ladder – Echuca and Mansfield. Since losing a fifth straight game in Round 9, the Bears have remained unbeaten and have climbed back up to 5th place on the ladder – having sat 2nd and 3rd for the opening four weeks of the year. After a Round 10 bye, a two-goal win against Shepp Swans has been followed by wins against Tatura (104 points), Euroa (84 points), Benalla (105 points), and – on the weekend – against Deakin Reserve co-tenant Shepp United (by 52 points). A common link in those four wins has been the outstanding form of Luke Smith, who now has 42 goals for the year after kicking 23 in the last four weeks (including six against the Demons on Saturday). No fluke either that Xavier Stevenson has been among the team’s best players in most of those wins, along with an impressive stretch of form from reigning Morrison Medallist Ash Holland. This pair, along with the return of Ned Byrne from Collingwood VFL duties, makes for a successful finals-time recipe. Mooroopna’s season has had a number of individual highlights – mostly from Kai Madgwick and Jed Woods – and they will be hoping to at least break even in the final four weeks of the year. They will go up against one of the league’s best this year – Nathan Hrovat – who is top 10 for total disposals. The Cats face two tough assignments, against the Bears this weekend and Echuca in the last round, but could climb one rung on the ladder (to 8th) if they can beat Euroa and United in the remaining two games. Prediction: Bears by 54 points. LTTM: Round 4, 2025: Bears won by 39 points under lights
Kyabram v Shepp United
After 14 weeks of the season, Kyabram co-coaches Corey Carver and Kaine Hebert are managing to find new ways of keeping their impressive playing list interested. On Saturday, in a 120-point win against Benalla, it was the debut of Carver’s own son – Lachlan – that had the Bombers abuzz with excitement. Carver kicked a goal in his first game, having kicked 16 goals in 12 Under-18 games this year. After kicking 27 behinds last week, the Bombers were again inaccurate in front of goal, kicking 10.12 after half-time and finishing with 20 minor scores. It hasn’t always been the case, as the Bombers have impressive scores of 17.5 and 19.7 to their credit this year. Their worst return was in Round 2, when they kicked 20.28 against Tatura, and improving that accuracy will be a priority before the finals. The main offenders have been Riley Ironside 38.22, Charlie Barnett 38.22, and Tom Holman, 24.20. Kyabram’s embarrassment of riches continued on Saturday when multiple senior best and fairest winner Liam Ogden was forced to return via the reserves, a week after one of last season’s most prolific ball-winners Coby McCarthy had to do the same. Prediction: Kyabram by 83 points
LTTM: Round 4, 2025: Kyabram won by 116 points
Echuca v Benalla
Given Echuca’s four-year domination of the GVL’s senior football competition, the weekend’s 47-point win against a winless Tatura will have given the Benalla Saints some hope for this weekend’s game. Still ranked 2nd this year, with 12 wins and just two defeats, Echuca kicked just one goal in the first and last quarters of the game, had fewer disposals than its bottom-of-the-ladder opponent and was handsomely beaten in the areas of uncontested disposals and marks. They did, however, still win the game by 47 points. And all that with a team that includes probably the competition’s highest number of first-year players, including another first-gamer on Saturday (Flynn Hatfield), Ky Henson (four games), Darby Jones (three games), Hudson Kellett (two games), Tom Evans (six games), Makai Cronin (11 games, but all this year), and Patrick Kennedy (eight games). Evans was a star for the Murray Bombers. His game-high 160 ranking point game included 37 touches (20 contested), 7 tackles, 13 clearances, 4 I50s and 5 Rebound 50s. He even kicked a goal. Assumption College product Jones, who played one senior game last season, kicked three goals in the win, and Kellett was impressive with 19 touches, six tackles and 3 Inside 50s. Benalla was without its most prolific ball-winner in the loss to Kyabram, Chris Welsh, and apart from the 4 I50 marks by league-leading goalkicker Nathan Wright, struggled to score after half-time. They kicked just 1.2 in the last three quarters, twice kept scoreless in a quarter by Kyabram. Wright was forced up the ground and despite only kicking two goals was among his side’s best players with 21 disposals, 9 marks, 3 I50s and 3 tackles. Prediction: Echuca by 65 points
LTTM: Round 4, 2025: Echuca won by 55 points
Mansfield v Rochester
Clearly the match of the round – 4th ranked Mansfield comes into the game against 3rd placed Rochester after kicking an impressive 20 goals and four behinds in a 39-point win over finals aspirant Seymour. The Eagles sit eight points clear of 5th ranked Shepparton, but are just one win and 7 per cent behind the Tigers. Mansfield has not lost a game since Round 7, beaten by just 11 points by Echuca. They have played only one team inside the six, however – Shepparton Swans – taking a 19-point win in a low-scoring game (54–35). After Rochester, they face ladder leader Kyabram, who they led midway through the last term in their last meeting, and then the much-improved Bears.Rochester is a team that wins most weeks, without being super impressive on a consistent basis. They beat Euroa by just three points, after the Magpies ran the Tigers to within 9 points the first time they met. With three successive wins since losing by 62 points to Kyabram, the Tigers have the Eagles and Swans before facing two of the bottom three teams (Benalla and Tatura) before the finals. Prediction: Mansfield by 11 points. LTTM: Round 4, 2025: Rochester won by 86 points
