Echuca (2nd) v Shepparton (5th)
Echuca won its 13th game of the season on Saturday, but was again well below full strength as teenage stars Darby Jones, Tom Evans and Hudson Kellett were all out from the previous week.
They were also without ruck-forward Kane Morris, but had Cooper Barber back for the first time since Round 2. Barber kicked seven goals in the first two rounds, but hadn’t played again before the 46-point win against Benalla.
It was the Murray Bombers that sent the Shepp Bears’ season into a downward spiral in Round 5. The Bears lost the next four games, but since Round 11 have won six straight games.
They will be keen to extend that winning streak, but have locked in their spot in the finals after winning a 10th game for the season on Saturday. They will be hoping coach Xavier Stevenson is fit for the game after missing on the weekend.
The Bears kicked six goals in both halves of their game against the Cats, but were most impressive in defence. They kept Mooroopna to one scoring shot in the first half as Ted Lindon led a defence that was supported strongly by Jonty Wardle.
It will be the Echuca defence that is under pressure this weekend when the teams meet, a 41-goal season from Lewis McShane and 44 goals from Luke Smith making them the 2nd best one-two punch in the competition (behind Kyabram pair Riley Ironside and Charlie Barnett, who have 90 goals between them this season).
Hugh Byrne, despite the difficult conditions, kicked his biggest bag (five goals) since Round 10 and now has 41 goals from 12 games.
Prediction: Bears by 11 points
LATTM: Round 5, 2025: Echuca won by 33 points
Euroa (8th) v Mooroopna (9th)
GVL record keepers were heading to their statistical library for all the wrong reasons at the end of the Euroa and Seymour game on the weekend.
There were just 50 points, six goals, scored between the two teams and in something that resembled a Little League scoreline it was a 3.8 (26) to 3.6 (24) win for the Lions.
The win is Seymour’s 7th of the year and while it means the Lions are 3 games clear of 8th-ranked Euroa, they are also out of finals contention – being three games behind 6th-ranked Shepparton Swans.
After half-time, the Euroa defence had the better of their Seymour opposition, allowing the Lions just four behinds. Euroa kicked two of their three goals in the final half, but could not register a win in what turned out to be a grandstand finish on a weekend when the Lions’ 2015 premiership team was celebrating grander times.
The Magpies have at least two winnable games to finish the season, with the Cats having one less win for the season and United (their final round opponent) having just the one win for 2025.
In the other game, they face off against 6th-ranked Shepp Swans.
They will be looking to young star Darby Wilson to continue his form from the weekend. Wilson missed the first 12 rounds through injury and has been gradually building his way back into form.
Mooroopna scored one less point (23) than the Magpies in its 63-point loss to Shepp Bears on the weekend and will be relying on season-long stars Jed Woods, Kai Madgwick and Dom Gugliotti to try and claw back one spot on the ladder.
Prediction: Euroa by 12 points
LTTM: Round 5, 2025: Euroa won by 27 points
Rochester (3rd) v Shepp Swans (6th)
Rochester was involved in the first draw of the season against Mansfield last weekend, proving that there is very little between the 2nd to 6th-ranked teams – leaving Kyabram as the outlier in the race for the 2025 GVL premiership.
Facing off against 4th-ranked Mansfield, the 3rd-placed Tigers kicked 5 goals, without a miss, in the 1st quarter of last weekend’s game. They led by 24 points at the first change and by 16 points at half-time.
They were outscored four goals to two in the second half and if not for the heroics of key defenders Ryan O’Keefe and Dylan Gordon may not have been able to come out of the game with two points.
Rochester has another top-six opponent this weekend, Shepp Swans, but then has the 10th and 12th-ranked teams in the final two weeks. They will be hoping to improve on last weekend’s output, which was the second week in a row where the total points for their game was below 120.
The Tigers have scored 100+ points in only four of their 14 games this year and are only the 6th-ranked offensive unit in the competition. They are, however, the 2nd-best defensive unit and that may prove valuable come September.
Shepp Swans has seven 100+ scores this season, but five of those came in the opening seven rounds when they faced off against only one top-six team. That was their lowest scoring game of the season and was not surprisingly against the Tigers.
The Swans won the game 52–43, in one of only six games this year that have been sub-100 points. Last year the Tigers were involved in the lowest scoring game and they were involved in the two lowest scoring games of 2023 – 78 and 86-point totals.
In spite of the weather on Saturday, the Swans kicked 14 goals and 97 points, allowing Tatura just eight points and keeping them goalless until the final term.
Prediction: Rochester by 10 points
LTTM: Round 5, 2025: Swans won by 9 points
