By Natasha Fujimoto
FOR more than a decade, new housing estates across Greater Shepparton have signalled steady growth and a reliable pipeline of future supply. However, with industry experts warning of a shortage of development–ready (zoned) land, buyers could soon be left with fewer options to choose from, as well as escalating prices in the years ahead.
While Greater Shepparton City Council holds there is ample land earmarked for future housing within approved Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs) — from 177 hectares in Shepparton North East and 248 hectares in Shepparton South East to land being prepared in growth areas such as Kialla West and Kialla North — developers and real estate agents say the situation on the ground is far more complex.
While council acknowledges it does not control the timing, staging or commercial viability of land release, it is currently reviewing housing supply and demand to build a clearer picture of residential land availability and ensure planning aligns with market conditions.
Developers argue that zoning land is only one step in a much longer process and far from a guarantee that new housing can be delivered in the near term.
“That’s misleading, because a lot of it you can’t develop yet,” said Development Edge’s Mick Lewis. “Even though it’s changed colour on the maps, it doesn’t have the work done for it to be ready.”
Without the necessary infrastructure, servicing and investment, much of the zoned land remains effectively out of reach, raising concerns that a genuine supply of blocks of land is closer than it appears.
“We’ve gone from having 13 to 14 active developments across Shepparton to almost none,” Mr Lewis said. “Developments like Seven Creeks, Sanctuary Park and The Vines are either sold out or nearly finished.
“Within the next six months, there will be virtually no new blocks of land available. There’s nothing ready in the pipeline to replace the developments that are finishing.”
When asked what factors have contributed to this dire situation, Mr Lewis said,
“A big part of it is lack of forward planning. Councils should maintain at least 15 years of land supply, but you can’t wait until supply runs low, it takes years to bring land to market.
“From when a developer starts a project, it can take 12 months for permits, six months for design and 12 months to build and deliver titled land. That’s why planning needs to happen well in advance.”
Exacerbating the issue still further, according to Mr Lewis, is the bottleneck of development in future growth areas.
“It’s all well and good to say there’s 2,500 homes there, but it doesn’t mean that all of that land can actually be developed,” he said. “You do stage one and then stage two; you can’t start from the other side because it doesn’t have sewer and infrastructure.
“This ‘leapfrog’ effect limits how quickly land can be brought to market, even in areas earmarked for growth.”
Local agents say the impact is already being felt with limited choice for buyers becoming increasingly apparent.
“There’s been a really good range for buyers, but that’s starting to dry up,” said Terry Shiels of Kevin Hicks Real Estate.
Pointing to a multiplicity of factors leading to the market tightening, Mr Shiels continued: “We haven’t been bringing blocks onto the market quickly enough through development, and at the moment I’m not seeing many bulldozers turning the soil around Shepparton.”
While demand remains steady, bringing new land to market is a slow and complex process. From rezoning to construction, it can take years before a block is ready to build on.
Mr Lewis estimates the process often takes around two years, sometimes longer. Mr Shiels agrees, noting that even land that appears development–ready can face significant delays.
“If you saw land ready today, you’d still be looking at close to two years before you could build on it,” he said.
In regional areas like Shepparton, the challenge is compounded by scale. Local developers often juggle multiple smaller projects rather than focusing on a single large estate, stretching resources and extending timelines.
Planning processes and staffing changes can add further delays, contributing to a growing gap between land that is zoned and land that is actually available to buyers.
“People want choice, they don’t just want ten blocks to choose from,” Mr Shiels said. “That range is what’s starting to disappear.”
As the squeeze on supply tightens, prices rise with blocks once sold for around $140,000 now heading towards $300,000.
Not only impacting buyers, this slowdown in land supply is also expected to affect builders, trades and suppliers, with real and significant consequences for the local economy.
“It affects everyone. It all feeds through,” said Mr Lewis.
The slowdown is also expected to ripple through the construction sector, affecting builders, trades and suppliers, with broader implications for the local economy.
“It affects everyone. It all feeds through,” Mr Lewis said.
He said delays across multiple levels of government and service authorities were compounding an already strained system, adding time and cost at almost every stage of the development process.
Response times from the State Government, local councils, Goulburn Valley Water and other authorities have blown out for rezonings, permits, design approvals and subdivision compliance, Mr Lewis said, arguing the process had become increasingly disconnected from the scale of the housing challenge.
“In a housing crisis, it feels like they just don’t care,” he said.
He said subdivision compliance timeframes that once took two to three weeks were now stretching to four to six months, sometimes longer, creating unnecessary holding costs for developers.
“Those delays are passed directly onto buyers and slow the release of much–needed housing,” Mr Lewis said.
