The number of high-risk bushfire days could triple in some parts of Victoria by the end of the century, according to new climate research by Country Fire Australia (CFA) and international research bodies.
Research, published this month in the International Journal of Wildland Fire, found that under different emissions scenarios both mean and extreme fire danger are expected to increase in Victoria.
State-wide, research modelling indicates a 10–20 percent increase in extreme Forest Fire Danger Index, with the greatest change projected in the north-west region, and a doubling or tripling of ‘Very High’ days in central and eastern parts of the state.
Beyond rising temperatures, human-induced climate changes affect rainfall and humidity, indicating to researchers that the fire season will continue to start earlier and to run for longer. Most alarmingly, as a flow-on effect, opportunities for prescribed springtime burning may be reduced.
CFA chief officer, Jason Heffernan, is proud of the CFA’s robust research program, which continues to enhance understanding of the impacts of climate change and how firefighting should evolve to face future challenges.
Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer, Chris Hardman, said partnerships with community and agencies such as CFA and Fire Rescue Victoria help ensure we are unified in emergency preparedness and response to keep the community and environment safe.
