Echuca (1st) v Kyabram (2nd)
Two of the most outstanding players of the opening five weeks will go head-to-head at Kyabram Recreation Reserve on Saturday when Bomber star Mick Mattingly and Echuca captain Jack McHale face off. Mattingly is number one in the GVL for disposals, while McHale has maintained his status as both a top-five clearance player and tackler. The supporting cast is just as impressive, with the ruck stocks certain to influence the overall result. Zac Norris is back to his best after a year on the sidelines with a shoulder injury, and now has an able deputy in co-captain Aidan Robinson. They’ll take on Leo O’Brien and Lachlan Watson, who’ve assumed much of the ruck duties to allow Kane Morris to move forward. In the last four meetings between the teams, Kyabram has lost the clearance count every time, including a -21 return in the 2023 grand final. They’ve also lost every inside 50 count, by more than 20 entries in two of those games. The Bombers now lead the competition in disposals, averaging more than 400 a game — a mantle Echuca has traditionally held. They also lead in marks inside 50 this year, although key defender Curtis Townrow has heavily influenced Echuca’s status as the second-ranked intercept marking team.
Prediction: Echuca by 21 points
Last Time They Met (LTTM)
Round 11, 2024 — Echuca won by 25 points
Shepp United (11th) v Mooroopna (10th)
By this time last year, Mooroopna had only lost one game — to eventual premier Echuca — and was on the way to a top-four finish. This year, they sit winless in 10th, facing the team directly below them and the real prospect of joining Tatura as the only sides without a win after six rounds. United was unlucky not to break its duck against Seymour, trailing by 17 points at quarter time, leading by four at half time, and trailing by a goal at the final break. They’ve faced the top three teams in the competition — Echuca, Kyabram and Shepp Bears — all unbeaten, along with losses to sixth-ranked Mansfield and seventh-placed Seymour. Mooroopna’s disappointing loss to previously winless Euroa came despite having seven more inside 50s and 32 more hit outs. Despite Jack Johnston’s dominance, the Cats lost the clearance count dramatically (39–66) and had a +8 free kick count. They had won the disposal count in each of their first three games and narrowly lost to Shepparton by three points in Round 4. Euroa has lost every inside 50 count and has only won the mark tally once this year (losing to the Cats 70–93). The ground-level work of Lachlan Hill and Tom Burke led to a +40 return in groundball gets — Hill credited with 14. Kade Chalcraft had 14 groundball gets for United and Joel Serra 10, as United finished +18 in that stat. United unveiled Liam Fiore on Saturday, a former Murray Bushranger who debuted in the GFL in 2017 as a teenager. He’ll be a key figure this weekend.
Prediction: United by 17 points
LTTM Round 8, 2024 — Mooroopna won by 18 points
Mansfield (6th) v Shepparton (3rd)
Ash Holland’s influence in the last two meetings with Mansfield has been game-defining, so the role of Gus Van der Heyden this weekend becomes crucial. Holland missed last week’s clash with Echuca, and the Bears were also without co-coach Xavier Stephenson and Tom Clurey. In Rounds 1 and 2, Stephenson had 38 and 35 disposals. If that trio returns, Mansfield’s task becomes even harder. Van der Heyden struggled against Kyabram’s Norris/Robinson duo, but ranks fourth for hit outs — behind Holland, Mark Kovacevic (Swans), and Mark Marriott (Benalla). He doesn’t feature in the top five for hit outs to advantage. Holland leads both ruck categories and was chiefly responsible for a 146–48 hit out count and 94–58 clearance count in Rounds 1 and 12 last year. Across the last four games between these sides, the free kick count is 108–81 in the Bears’ favour. Even in their 29-point loss in Round 16, 2023, the inside 50s were equal — a stat the Bears have since dominated. Watch for Matt King, Nick Gray and Callum Brown to challenge Ned Byrne, Adam Decicco and Luke Smith. Debutant Sam O’Brien was a highlight last week, kicking two goals, including one with his first touch in senior footy.
Prediction: Shepparton by 33 points
LTTM Round 12, 2024 — Shepparton won by 81 points
Benalla (9th) v Rochester (5th)
Coming off their first win of the season — and only their 11th from the last 59 games — Benalla will be full of confidence as they host a Rochester team coming off its first loss of 2025, falling to the Shepp Swans on Saturday. The Tigers have had three close games this season and now dropped to fifth, behind unbeaten sides Echuca, Kyabram and Shepp Swans, as well as the 4–1 Shepp Bears. Benalla has climbed to ninth, ahead of winless Mooroopna, Shepp United and Tatura. Veteran forward Jarrad Waite booted six goals last weekend — his best return since kicking eight against Rochester in Round 8, 2023. Rochester was missing Mitch Cricelli, while James McPhee and Sean Williams didn’t manage a goal — something that’s only happened a handful of times in McPhee’s last 40 games. It could be a battle of the key defenders, with Nick Warnock in sublime form. After just five intercept marks across the first three rounds, he’s taken 23 in the past two weeks. The Tigers’ defensive unit of Grant Fuller, Dylan Gordon and Ryan O’Keefe has conceded only 10 more points across five rounds than competition benchmark Echuca. Gordon had 11 rebound 50s in the loss to the Swans.
Prediction: Rochester by 79 points
LTTM Round 13, 2024 — Rochester won by 37 points
Euroa (8th) v Shepp Swans (3rd)
Shepp Swans are only two wins away from matching their 2024 win total — a feat they may well achieve in the next fortnight if current form is anything to go by. The Swans face Euroa on Saturday, who claimed their first win of the season against Mooroopna and sit eighth on the ladder. Shepp Swans then play winless Mooroopna in Round 7 before confronting ladder-leader Echuca. So far, they’ve played only one team inside the current top six, but after Echuca they face Mansfield, Kyabram and Shepp Bears in succession. Ruckman Mark Kovacevic continues to dominate, scoring ranking points of 172 and 177 across his last two games. Euroa used three different players in the ruck against the Cats, but were convincingly beaten in that area. Fortunately, their ground-level work — thanks to the Gleesons, Lachlan Hill, and Nic Burke — kept them competitive. The Swans will hope for more accuracy in front of goal this weekend after kicking 6.16 against Rochester. Their season tally is 66.63. Andrew Riordan didn’t kick a goal for the first time last round but remains their leading goalkicker (eight goals), with Steele Simpson and Laim Rachele just behind on seven each. For Euroa, star Jett Trotter has also kicked eight goals, with midfielders now offering additional scoreboard support.
Prediction: Swans by 49 points
LTTM Round 14, 2024 — Swans won by 11 points
Seymour (7th) v Tatura (12th)
Seymour has the chance to completely turn its season around with a third straight win when it hosts winless Tatura on Saturday. The Lions opened 2025 with three straight losses — by 79 points to Rochester, 38 points to the Shepp Swans, and 44 points to Mansfield — but have since claimed wins against Euroa and Shepp United, climbing to seventh. Tatura is one of three teams yet to record a win and has scored 100 points fewer than the next-lowest scoring side. Their leading goalkicker is Blake Armstrong, with five of the team’s 22 goals. Seymour unveiled Jack Peris on the weekend but has also struggled to convert opportunities. Midfielder Jack Murphy is their leading scorer with 10 goals, while Lewis Lubeck has added seven after a 21-goal 2024 season. Seamus Feery helped the Lions to a +21 hit out return, which translated into a break-even clearance result. Seymour took 113 marks last round, though only 11 of those were inside 50 and they lost the inside 50 count by four. Tatura has worked hard defensively, with Andrew Ciavarella, Curtis Ryan and Michael Archer doing their best under pressure.
Prediction: Seymour by 102 points
LTTM Round 14, 2024 — Seymour won by 195 points
