By Rohan Aldous
Echuca v Kyabram
It will be a very different Echuca team that takes the field against Kyabram this weekend, in the second-last round before the teams start their 2025 finals campaigns.
In R6, Echuca had Jack McHale, Jack Evans, Leo O’Brien, Mitchell Bell, Will Monahan, and Curtis Townrow in its team. None of these players were part of the team beaten by Shepp Bears in the first part of R16.
The Murray Bombers also find themselves facing a Kyabram team on the rebound, after losing their first game of the season — by a point — to Mansfield Eagles last weekend.
Echuca, amid a horrible run of injuries, has used more players at senior GVL level than any other team this season. The Bombers also have a couple of their stars missing, with Jason Morgan and Brad Whitford both out of last weekend’s loss.
Kyabram remains the most prolific ball-winning team, averaging almost 40 more disposals than Echuca weekly. The two teams are much closer when it comes to contested possessions.
Echuca remains the most prolific tackling team in the GVL, so an in-close game will suit them fine. The Bombers are ranked 8th in this statistical category.
Echuca will need to be defensively minded against the midfield of Mick Mattingly (39 disposals last week), Kaine Herbert (33 disposals), Jack Russell and Archie Watt. That is where I think Kyabram can win the game, averaging 57 Inside 50 entries a week (much of that supply from this quartet).
Prediction: Kyabram by 39 points
LTTM: R6, Kyabram won by 35 points
Mooroopna v Shepp United
Both teams are now playing for pride, United having won just the single game this season and the Cats only marginally better with three wins. Both are coming off some of their worst games of the year — the Cats managing just three goals and eight scoring shots in a 79-point loss to Euroa. The Demons, who ran Seymour to within a goal the first time they met, were beaten by an even 10 goals on the weekend.
It was the second week in a row that the Cats had managed just 23 points in total for the game and made it a five-week stretch where they had not managed 60 points. For the Demons, it hasn’t been quite as dire at the offensive end. In the first 14 games of the year, however, they only dipped below the 60-point mark twice.
United was without coach Jesse Cucinotta, a renowned ball-winner and two-way runner, leaving most of the work in the midfield up to Kade Chalcraft and co-captain Joel Serra. They will match up with Mooroopna’s two prolific ball-winners Kai Madgwick and Jed Woods in what will go a long way to deciding the result.
With goals at a premium, the role of Logan Campbell (34 goals) and Kobie Issell (23 goals) will be vital, with United’s major goal-kickers being Liam Serra and Kaedyn Napier (both 23 majors), and Kyle Clarke (22).
Winning the ball from clearances will be a big factor, with the teams ranked 10th and 12th in this space. Whoever can get on top will be able to influence the Inside 50 count, which the Cats sit in 11th spot for in 2025 (United is 8th).
Prediction: Mooroopna by 17 points
LTTM: R6, Mooroopna won by 18 points
Shepparton v Mansfield
Match of the round, and two of the in-form teams of the competition — the Eagles coming off a win against the previously unbeaten ladder leader, and the Bears having strung together seven straight wins since the bye.
Before that R10 bye, the Bears had lost to Rochester, Kyabram, Seymour, Mansfield and Echuca in successive weeks. They have now recovered to sit fifth on the ladder. The Eagles are just two points off 3rd-ranked Echuca and one win from 2nd-ranked Rochester. In the final round, they face now 9th-ranked Benalla.
They may only be ranked 6th when it comes to total disposals, but they are 2nd for tackles, 2nd for Inside 50 entries, and — alongside Kyabram and Echuca — are the team with the least turnovers for the season.
Through Callum Brown, Nick Gray and Matt King, they have three of the best two-way runners in the competition. Last weekend against the Bombers, Brown had 9 I50s and 5 Rebound 50s — to go with 37 disposals, 9 tackles and 7 clearances. King averages 4.2 I50s and 5.5 R50s, his work ethic matched by the extraordinary statistical return of Gray this season. Gray averages 8 tackles a game, 11 clearances, just under 30 disposals, 4 I50s and 2 R50s.
These three will go up against Ned Byrne, Jacob Watts and Adam Decicco, with a fit Xavier Stevenson also a major asset for the Bears. If this quartet can at least break even with the Eagles’ stars, then the forward trio of Lewis McShane, Luke Smith and Trent Herbert has the ability to put a winning score on the board.
Mansfield’s intercept marking trio of Dirk Koenen, Adam Boshevski and Nathan Buchanan will be a stumbling block for the Bears, with Koenen fresh off a game where he took 7 intercept marks against the Bombers.
Prediction: Mansfield by 21 points
LTTM: R6, Mansfield won by 17 points
Rochester v Benalla
Benalla offered a challenge to the Tigers last time they met, but before last weekend’s win against Tatura, the Saints had been badly out of form.
Between Rounds 13 and 15, they had scores of 29, 20 and 23, but they were back on track with their fourth win of the season against bottom team Tatura on Saturday.
Rochester, however, is a totally different prospect. The Tigers have one of the best-performed defensive units, which will present the competition’s leading goal-kicker — Nathan Wright — with a big challenge to add significantly to his 54 goals for the year.
Wright played in the VFL with Northern Bullants two weeks ago, but returned last week with an eight-goal haul. It was his second bag of eight for the year, and he also has a nine-goal haul to his credit.
The Saints have plenty of young stars making their way through the ranks, and two of those, in particular, were great against the Bulldogs. Ryley Ely had 32 disposals (17 contested), 7 clearances, 7 Inside 50s and even kicked a goal. It further reinforced his status as a Rising Star of the GVL competition. Alongside Chris Welsh (another 35 disposals), Ethan Maney (27 touches, 5 tackles, 5 Inside 50s and two goals) and Cooper Gracie (30 disposals), the Saints are well served in the midfield.
This will come up against a Rochester midfield led by arguably the hardest-working player in the competition — Mitch Trewhella. He has few peers when it comes to Ground Ball Gets and Hard Ball Gets, and is coming off a 30-disposal, 5-clearance and 4 I50 game.
While Wright will give Ryan O’Keefe some headaches, Nick Warnock, Will O’Donoghue and Jordan Wolff are in for some headaches of their own on the back of a seven-goal game from Hugh Hamilton.
In the win against Tatura, Warnock returned to his intercept-marking best, pulling in eight for the game to go with 29 touches and 9 Rebound 50s.
Hamilton, one of three brothers in the Tigers team, now has 43 goals — eight more than his brother Will. In the win against the Swans, Hugh kicked seven goals straight, despite only taking two marks inside 50.
Saints ruckman Mark Marriott, fresh off a 44-hit-out game, will have size on Hamish Hooppell, but the Tigers defender-cum-ruckman had 14 clearances, 19 disposals, 7 I50s and kicked a goal in his last outing.
Prediction: Rochester by 43 points
LTTM: R6, Rochester won by 34 points
Shepp Swans v Euroa
Shepp Swans will not miss the finals, but they will be hoping to use the final two rounds of the season to re-gather the early season form that saw them win their first seven games in a row.
Since R8, the Swans are 3 wins and 6 defeats, and face ladder leader Kyabram in the final game of the year. They are looking like they will face either Echuca or Mansfield in an elimination final in the first week of the finals.
They will need, however, to arrest a recent trend of one-quarter fade-outs. They gave up eight goals against Rochester in the third term of last weekend’s 35-point loss and led the Bears before giving up six goals to none in the third quarter of their R12 game.
Euroa has been in the best form of its season in the last month, losing to Rochester by just three points in R14, then only a two-point loser to the up-and-down Seymour, before humbling Mooroopna 102–23 in less-than-ideal conditions at Memorial Oval.
The Magpies will be a chance of continuing that good run if captain Jett Trotter can back up his 19-disposal, six-goal game that was the catalyst of the win against Mooroopna.
Prediction: Swans by 27 points
LTTM: R6, Swans won by 93 points
Tatura v Seymour
Seymour will finish this season as the best side outside the finals. They will look back on the first three games of the season and wonder what might have been. They lost to Rochester by 79 points, the Swans by 38, and Mansfield by 44 — before winning the next four games in emphatic style.
The Lions haven’t had the easiest draw, playing 2nd-ranked Rochester twice, 6th-ranked Swans twice, Mansfield (4th) twice, Echuca and Kyabram. A surprise loss to Mooroopna mid-season is probably the only thing that stopped next week’s game against the Bears being a do-or-die contest.
Last weekend against United, they were precise with their ball use, having 49 more effective kicks than their opposition. They had 3 fewer Inside 50 entries, won clearances by just 5 and had only 33 more disposals — yet they won by 10 goals.
Tatura’s Curtis Ryan continues to excel in his new midfield role. He laid 11 tackles against the Saints, had 31 touches, kicked a goal, had 6 clearances and 4 Inside 50s. Together with Andrew Ciavarella (124 ranking points, in a game where he had 32 disposals) and Sean McAllister (36 touches), they were competitive at stages.
The Bulldogs were still in touch at half-time, but gave up eight goals to none in the final quarter to lose by 78 points.
Prediction: Seymour by 114 points
LTTM: R6, Seymour won by 91 points
