I’ve often been accused of exaggeration, but some of the weekend’s results might make a case for the opposite. I predicted Kyabram to win by 59 points; instead, they triumphed by a massive 116 points. At the other end, I tipped Rochester to win by just three points, and they defeated Mansfield by 86 points. My 135-point tip for Echuca was way off; they took until the final term to win by 55 points. I forecasted the Swans to win by 108 points, which wasn’t too far off—they beat Tatura by 86 points. I ended up with five out of six correct tips, but I underestimated coaching master Ben Davey at my own peril. He engineered a significant turnaround in form to beat Euroa by 52 points, whereas I had tipped an 11-point Euroa win. Whoops!
Shepparton v Echuca
Not much separates these two teams after four rounds—just 18 percentage points, to be precise—with Shepparton boasting the best defence and the third-best offence (behind Kyabram and the Murray Bombers). They occupy two of the top three rungs on the ladder and have both played teams yet to post a win in 2025. This round marks the beginning of a challenging month for the three-time reigning premier, who will face both of the other unbeaten teams—Kyabram and Shepparton Swans—in the next four weeks. Recent history favours Echuca, but that would be the case with every team in the competition. The teams return to the scene of last year’s grand final “crime.” Echuca won all three encounters between these two teams last season: by 70 points in Round 10, by 35 points in the opening week of the finals, and by 96 points in the grand final. Not that they are alone—Echuca also defeated the Bears by 54 points in 2024, and the margins in 2022 were 158 and 80 points. There are mouth-watering match-ups everywhere you look, but here are the headline acts: Holland versus Morris in the ruck; McHale, Stewart, and Evans against Smith, Stevenson, and DeCicco in the midfield; Which defenders will take on leading goal kickers Lewis McShane and Echuca’s Hugh Byrne? Prediction: Shepparton by nine points. Last Time They Met (LTTM) Grand Final, 2024 – Echuca won by 96 points.
Shepp Swans v Rochester
This week will mark the first time in 2025 that the Shepp Swans have played a team inside the top six, having previously defeated the two bottom teams, along with Seymour and Mooroopna. They’ve won impressively in all four outings, but now face a Rochester team with several attacking weapons—Mitch Cricelli, Will Hamilton, his younger brother Hugh, Sean Williams, and the returning James McPhee. Four of those players are currently in the top 23 for the season, while proven goalkicker McPhee kicked two goals in his return last week. They’ll go up against a Swans defence led by in-form half-back Luke Davies, alongside Zac Clohesy and Kade Anderson. Davies took four intercept marks and had four rebound 50s in his return last week. However, it was the return of ruckman Mark Kovacevic that stole the show. He had 58 hit-outs in a 177-ranking point game, where he also collected 24 disposals, had 13 clearances, and kicked two goals. He’ll come up against Tiger veteran Hamish Hooppell, who works in tandem with recruit Nash Ramage. Hooppell had nine clearances, seven inside 50s, 18 disposals, and six tackles last week—so he’s more than capable of holding his own. A mouth-watering battle looms between Swans star Nathan Hrovat and Rochester’s Mitch Trewhella. Hrovat scored 199 ranking points last week with 49 disposals, 12 clearances, and six tackles. By his own standards, Trewhella’s 36-disposal, 10-clearance, and six-tackle game was par for the course. If they match up, it will be worth the price of admission. Prediction: Rochester by 16 points. LTTM: Round 11, 2024 – Rochester won by 50 points.
Seymour v Shepp United
Neither side has a single representative in the top 15 goalkickers this season, so the team that can turn around a lack of scoring options will likely be the winner. Seymour broke its 2025 duck in spectacular fashion against Euroa last weekend, having only managed scores of 40, 71, and 63 in the opening three games. Their 107-point total—and 48-point win—came on the back of a six-goal-to-none first term. All three of Seymour’s losses (they sit seventh) have come against teams currently inside the top six, while United sits tenth after a super brave showing against competition yardstick Echuca, a 17-point loss to Mansfield in a game where they outscored the Eagles in the last three quarters, and a disappointing 74-point loss to the Shepparton Bears. The outlier of the season came last weekend against Kyabram, when United was completely outplayed. Apart from Kade Chalcraft (seven tackles), Dae Szydlik (34 disposals), Jack McCartney (seven clearances), Jesse Cucinotta (another 34-disposal game), and Joel Serra, United had few winners. Prediction: Seymour by 29 points. LTTM: Round 10, 2024 – Seymour won by 32 points.
Tatura v Benalla
The loser of this game will sit at the bottom of the ladder after five rounds. Benalla, statistically at least, will enter the game as favourites after showing plenty in the first three quarters of their match against Echuca on Saturday. They kicked four straight goals in the first quarter and led the reigning premiers by eight points. Trailing by just 19 points at the final change, they probably considered themselves still a chance of an upset—wrong. Echuca kicked six goals to none in the final term, and Benalla lost by 55 points. It was their best result of the year, however, having lost in the opening three rounds by 89 points (to fourth-ranked and unbeaten Shepparton Swans), by 87 points to Shepparton Bears (also unbeaten and ladder leader), and to Kyabram (second with the best offence in the competition). Tatura has had a horror draw, playing the four teams that sit in the top four spots on the ladder—losing by 101 points to the Bears, by 128 points to Kyabram, by 161 points to Echuca, and by 72 points in a night fixture to Shepparton Swans. Prediction: Benalla by 31 points. LTTM: Round 18, 2024 – Benalla won by 22 points.
Kyabram v Mansfield
This match serves as a prelude for Bombers fans, who, while not counting their chickens before they hatch, can’t resist a sneak peek at the Round 6 game against Echuca and the Round 8 fixture against Shepparton Bears. After Round 8, we’ll have a clearer picture of just how formidable Kyabram is. They dismantled Shepparton United last week with 48 scoring shots, securing a 116-point victory. In the preceding three weeks, they defeated Benalla by 105, Tatura by 128, and warmed up with a 37-point win against Euroa. In Anthony Depasquale’s absence (making his VFL debut with Werribee), Riley Ironside stepped up, delivering arguably the best game of his senior GVL career—seven goals from 26 disposals and 140 ranking points. The standout performance came from ruckman Zac Norris. Teaming up with co-captain Aidan Robinson, they dominated the ruck with 79 hit-outs and 14 clearances between them (Norris contributing 10). Both also kicked two goals each. Prediction: Kyabram by 41 points
LTTM: Round 14, 2024 – Kyabram won by 35 points.
Mooroopna v Euroa
As regular finalists, both the Cats and Magpies will be eager to secure their first win of the season on Saturday, but one will walk away disappointed. They currently sit eighth and ninth on the ladder but have not been totally inept this season. Mooroopna has faced four teams in the top six, and the Magpies lost to Kyabram, Rochester, and Echuca before falling to neighbour Seymour in their most disappointing return of the season on Saturday. Mooroopna has not allowed an opponent to score 100 points this year and has regularly had more disposals than its opposition. It lost to Mansfield by 38 points, by just seven to Rochester, by 28 to the Swans, and by 39 in a night fixture against the Bears. Ruckman Jack Johnston has been a standout this season, working with ground-level stars Kai Madgwick and Coby James. The Cats’ defence, led by captain Ben Hicks, has been outstanding, and last weekend, Dom Gugliotti, Hicks, and Nathan Drummond all did impressive work in the back half.
Prediction: Mooroopna by 25 points. LTTM: Round 10, 2024 – Mooroopna won by nine points.
