Rochester (4th) v Tatura (12th)
Rochester took three quarters to shake a determined Benalla on the weekend but remains a top-four team. It now faces one of the league’s two winless teams in the last game before the early-season bye. Tatura failed to score after halftime on Saturday and, despite showing plenty in the second term, had nothing in the tank after the long break. The Tigers were challenged by 10th-ranked Benalla in the opening half, the Saints trailing by just one point at halftime before losing the second half 10 goals to five (Rochester winning by 34 points). There were 60 free kicks paid (30 to each team) in what appears to have been a physical game. Rochester found open space in the second half, finishing +59 for uncontested disposals and +50 for uncontested marks. Players like Hugh Hamilton have caused Tatura plenty of problems this season. His six goals against Benalla came mainly from the midfield and half-forward, with brother Will Hamilton kicking three. The pair have 25 goals between them this year, with Mitch Cricelli (15 goals) and Nash Ramage (seven) also reliable avenues to goal. Meanwhile, Tatura’s best work is done in defence. It has only managed to surpass 40 points in a game once this season. Key defender Curtis Ryan (28 disposals, 10 rebound 50s, and four tackles) was the only player to exceed 100 ranking points. Prediction: Rochester by 91 points. Last Time They Met (LTTM) Round 15, 2024 – Rochester won by 107 points.
Shepparton (5th) v Seymour (7th)
Not since 2023 has Shepparton lost three games in a row, but after a 17-point loss to Mansfield on Saturday, that is exactly what they face this weekend against the in-form Lions. Seymour comes into the game with three straight wins after losing their first three games of the season. The Bears have fallen to fifth on the ladder, and a Seymour win would see both teams level on four wins apiece heading into the interleague break. Things don’t get any easier for Shepparton after the bye. They face unbeaten ladder leader Kyabram in Round 8, fourth-placed Rochester in Round 9, and the other unbeaten team (Shepparton Swans) in Round 11. Shepparton had no answer for Mansfield’s hard-running midfielders Nick Gray and Matt King, who had 75 disposals between them. Unusually, Adam Decicco (23 disposals) and Ned Byrne (25) were down on their usual output. The determined Decicco did manage nine tackles, while Luke Smith’s 11 clearances and Mitch Brett’s 11 rebound 50s show they gave a four-quarter effort. Jack Murphy will be the player the Bears need to shut down. He is now averaging 34 disposals per game. If Nathan Beattie returns this weekend, it will create even more headaches for the Bears’ midfield. Prediction: The Bears to stand up and win by 23 points. LTTM Round 15, 2024 – Bears won by 39 points.
Kyabram (1st) v Mooroopna (8th)
Michael Mattingly has turned back the clock this season and is well on the way to replicating his 2019 Morrison Medal-winning form after a 44-disposal game against Echuca. Mattingly had 11 clearances and nine inside 50s, part of an all-star midfield alongside co-coach Kaine Herbert. Herbert added 35 disposals (23 contested), seven clearances, a season-high 14 inside 50s, and 13 score involvements. The unbeaten Bombers will face a Mooroopna team coming off its first win of the season, despite losing several statistical categories against United. Shepp United had 49 more disposals, 24 more clearances, and won the mark count, but Mooroopna did win the tackle count (+10) and had the better of the umpiring with a 33–19 free kick count. That won’t be enough against a Kyabram team that now has multiple avenues to goal. The significant improvement of Charlie Barnett in attack has given the Bombers an extra option. Barnett now has 21 goals from six games, kicking his fifth straight bag of four goals against Echuca on Saturday. Last year he kicked just one goal in nine games after missing eight matches mid-season. He kicked five goals in his first full GVL senior season in 2023 — the same year he represented Country Victoria in the National Championships. With Riley Ironside and Archie Watt also in the forward line, the Cats’ defence has plenty to think about. Ben Woods, Isaac Dowling, and Kai Madgwick all have tough assignments, especially after captain Ben Hicks had little impact last weekend. Prediction: Kyabram by 36 points. LTTM Week 1 Finals, 2024 – Mooroopna won by seven points
Shepp Swans (2nd) v Shepp United (11th)
There wouldn’t have been much Shepp Swans coach Jedd Wright could have questioned in his team’s 93-point win over United on Saturday. A slow start, leading by just one point at quarter-time may be the only concern, but the Swans kicked 22 goals and just three behinds to United’s six goals after quarter-time. They sit second on the ladder and will now prepare for the toughest four-week run of the season. After the bye, they’ll face all of the other top six teams in succession: Echuca, Mansfield, Kyabram, and Shepparton. All but one of the teams they’ve beaten in their first six games are outside the top six. Meanwhile, United is one of just two winless teams. While it will be described by the coach as a team effort, United’s defensive focus will be on James Auld and Steele Simpson. Auld kicked six straight and took seven inside-50 marks, while Simpson kicked 7.2 and pulled in six inside-50 marks. Simpson also had 24 disposals and 13 score involvements. Swans ruckman Mark Kovacevic continues to post elite numbers games of 40+ hit outs, 10 clearances, 20 disposals, and two goals are becoming his norm. He will be a major obstacle for Kaedyn Napier and Corey Reardon, who did most of United’s ruck work last weekend. Prediction: Shepp Swans by 35 points. LTTM Round 16, 2024 – Swans won by 24 points.
Euroa (9th) v Benalla (10th)
Aside from a +7 free kick count, Euroa’s loss to the unbeaten Shepp Swans was a major letdown after their first win of the season a week earlier. They now face a Benalla side that was highly competitive against fourth-ranked Rochester, at least until halftime. Both teams sit on one win and five losses for the season. For me, the highlight will be the battle between the two centre half-backs: Euroa’s Cohen Paul and Benalla’s Nick Warnock. Paul had a game-high 33 disposals in the team’s 93-point loss last weekend, while Warnock pulled in six intercept marks in arguably his quietest game of the season since moving from attack to defence. Paul had seven rebound 50s and, when pushed into the ruck, added seven hit outs and five clearances. He and Lachlan Hill (26 disposals, 10 clearances, six tackles) were the only 100+ ranking point players on the day. Benalla spearhead Nathan Wright didn’t hit the scoreboard when coach Jarrad Waite was in the side a week earlier, but he exploded with eight goals (of Benalla’s 11) on Saturday. He took six marks inside 50, didn’t miss a shot, and now has 20 goals for the season. Prediction: Euroa by 27 points. LTTM Round 17, 2024 – Euroa won by 133 points.
Mansfield (6th) v Echuca (3rd)
Mansfield has the chance to claim the scalps of both last year’s grand finalists in back-to-back weeks when they host Echuca on Saturday, but once bitten, twice shy, I’m expecting a strong response from Echuca against the improved Eagles outfit. Having both matches on their home ground helps the Eagles, and statistically, they’ve been stronger at home. The reigning premiers were completely outplayed last week, not only losing by 35 points but also trailing -70 in disposals, -37 in marks, -27 in clearances, and -35 in inside 50 entries. There likely hasn’t been a game in the last three years where Echuca was that comprehensively outperformed statistically. The only area they did win was in tackles (+16), but Kyabram also won the forward-50 tackle count 15–7. Mansfield’s defence will have to deal with Hugh Byrne and Kane Morris (seven goals in a losing team). The loss of co-captain Jack McHale before halftime would’ve disrupted Echuca’s structure significantly. Echuca will be looking to start better than they finished last week — they were outscored seven goals to two, had just four inside 50s, lost the clearance count by 11, and were -35 in disposals. Prediction: Echuca by 17 points. LTTM Round 6, 2024 – Echuca won by 36 points.
