Record exodus from capital cities continued in September quarter

BIG BUILD... Shepparton's new housing estates, such as The Vines (pictured) have boomed over the last 12 months on the back of strong migration to the regions, low interest rates and government incentives to build. Photo: Katelyn Morse

A RECORD number of ‘tree changers’ have left capital cities for the regions, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

In the September quarter of 2020, capital cities had a net loss of 11,200 people from internal migration nationwide – the largest quarterly net loss on record.

For Greater Melbourne, there was a net loss of 7,400 people in the September 2020 quarter, including 4,600 people to the rest of the state (the rest heading interstate, mainly to Queensland).

The figures represent an exodus from Melbourne nearly eight-times greater than what was occurring 12 months prior in the September quarter of 2019.
Incoming residents to the regions have caused a surge in the real estate market, with median house prices in Regional Victoria up 9.2 percent on average in the December quarter alone, according to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria. In Shepparton, that figure is 8.3 percent.

Rental yields in Shepparton are also up, outpacing the rest of regional Victoria at 4.7 percent, compared to the regional average of 4.2 percent.
Peter Mintern, the director of Development Edge, one of the leading developers in residential land estates across Greater Shepparton, described the sales and enquiry rate to his company as “unprecedented”.

“The sales and enquiry rates are unprecedented, there’s no doubt about that,” he said.

“We track across all our projects the sales rates against what we might otherwise assume, and we’ve exponentially exceeded that, to the point where we’ve sold out stages of developments without even turning soil.

“In a general sense you’re talking probably two years’ worth of stock is being sold in the last 12 months.”
Mr Mintern said there were plenty of anecdotal reports of Melburnians relocating – or returning home – to Greater Shepparton.

“There have certainly been enquiries and people who have relocated back to Shepparton people who are working remotely that would otherwise be in the office in Melbourne,” he said.

“I think even if it’s people who have relocated and are renting, you’re talking about people who are surging the population by relocating whether they’re buying or not, and they’re also providing for investments.”