By Deanne Jeffers
THE property landscape across regional Victoria has reached a historic turning point. For the first time on record, house prices in regional Victoria have edged ahead of unit prices in metropolitan Melbourne.
According to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) for the March 2026 quarter, regional house values jumped 3.8 per cent to a median of $672,000. This milestone places regional homes more than $10,000 higher than the Melbourne unit median of $659,500, marking the strongest quarterly rise for the regions since 2021.
The Goulburn and Murray Valleys are at the heart of this growth story, showcasing a market that has transitioned from recovery into a measured expansion phase. Greater Shepparton has emerged as a top performer, ranking fourth for annual house price growth among regional municipalities with a 19.3 per cent increase, bringing its median to $575,000.
At the suburb level, the results are even more striking:
• Tatura: Led the region with a massive 22.8 per cent increase in median house prices to $522,000.
• Mooroopna and Shepparton: Both recorded identical 15.5 per cent gains.
• Cobram: Rebounded sharply with a 15.6 per cent increase.
• Shepparton North: Continued its steady climb, up 10.3 per cent to $684,000.
The Goulburn-Murray corridor continues to act as a magnet for both owner-occupiers and investors. While Melbourne grapples with a cooling market, local rental demand remains exceptionally robust.
In Shepparton, median house rents have climbed to approximately $500 per week. Perhaps most importantly for investors, vacancy rates remain pinned at a tight 1 per cent locally, which is significantly lower than the REIA 3 per cent benchmark and Melbourne’s 1.8 per cent. This scarcity of supply, combined with relative affordability, has driven increased transaction activity, particularly in the entry to mid-level price brackets.
These comprehensive insights are featured in The Adviser’s latest ‘Great Estates of the Goulburn & Murray Valley’ magazine, out now.
In a featured report for the magazine, Chris Crouch of Opteon Group Property Valuers notes that while national housing growth has moderated, regional markets have shown remarkable resilience. Crouch highlights that while the mid-to-upper segments remain relatively subdued, the fundamentals of population growth and limited supply are placing a firm floor under local prices.
The market is currently navigating a “multi-speed” phase following the May 2026 Federal Budget. Recent commentary from REA Group Analyst Luc Redman suggests that while changes to Capital Gains Tax and Negative Gearing may lead to a slight softening of prices and a marginal increase in rents nationally, the Goulburn Valley’s supply-side constraints and lifestyle appeal continue to buffer the region against significant corrections.
PropTrack’s Home Price Index for April 2026 confirms this regional strength, showing that while Melbourne home prices fell by 0.3 per cent over the month, regional Victorian prices held flat at their peak—remaining 6.7 per cent higher than they were a year ago.
For a deep dive into these latest figures, expert commentary, and a showcase of the region’s premier properties, pick up your copy of ‘Great Estates of the Goulburn & Murray Valley’ in today’s edition of The Adviser.
