Shepp United (11th) v Tatura (12th)
Shepp United may sit second-bottom on the ladder and be one of only two winless teams eight weeks into the 2025 season, but their results do not read nearly as bad as their position. The Demons trailed Echuca by just three points at three-quarter time of their R1 game, outscored Mansfield in two of four quarters in R2, and recovered from a slow start to finish only a goal behind Seymour in R5. Scattered among those strong performances have been a disappointing 116-point loss to top team Kyabram, a 70-point loss to co-tenant Shepparton, and a 58-point loss to Shepp Swans. They are the fifth-ranked team for contested disposals and are also top five for clearances. They do, however, sit 10th for total disposals and lay the second-least number of tackles (on average) in the league. This week, they will break their 2025 season duck when they face a team that is ranked bottom three for almost every important statistical category, apart from intercept marks (9th) and free kicks (7th). United’s season, despite their ranking, has been highlighted by its ability to keep teams to under 100 points. Next month, they have three teams outside the top six (Tatura, Benalla and Euroa), which could significantly change their ranking. Tatura’s statistical season has had few highlights, as they have won just one of their 32 quarters this year and lost 14 of those quarters by five goals or more. Game time: 2pm Saturday, at King’s Park, Seymour. Prediction: Shepp United.
Rochester (2nd) v Shepparton (6th)
Rochester finds itself second on the ladder, despite having a less-than-impressive nine-point win against Shepp United on the weekend. Previously third, the Tigers remain top three in almost every statistical category this season and have the chance to put a break on the other half of the top six with a win in this game. Shepparton is now sixth on the ladder and, after a first loss for 2025, the Swans have dropped to third. The Tigers confront a Shepparton team that has lost four successive games — albeit to the premier of the last three years, a much-improved Mansfield team, a hot-to-trot Seymour combination, and the benchmark of the league, Kyabram. Shepparton hasn’t won since it beat Mooroopna by 39 points way back on April 26. The Bears are the top tackling team and number two for clearances — two areas of weakness for Rochester. The Tigers are also a top five team for marks inside 50 and win the third-most free kicks in the competition. They play a team which is 9th in relation to free kicks this season. Shepparton’s loss to Kyabram was, ironically, the first time in four weeks that they had won a first quarter. They led by 10 points at quarter time. Conversely, they have won all but one of their eight last quarters this year, including against Kyabram on Saturday. Game time: 2pm Saturday, at Moon Oval, Rochester. Prediction: Shepparton to win by eight points
Mansfield (5th) v Shepp Swans (3rd)
Jedd Wright and his Swans team have specific strengths to their game which they have managed to exploit in their opposition this season. They take more marks than any team, prefer to kick (second in the league) rather than handball (11th in the competition), and take more uncontested marks. They are only sixth when it comes to contested ball, narrowly ahead of Mansfield, and take the second-most marks inside 50. Mansfield has strengths of its own, ranked second for intercept marking (which will make the contest interesting against the Swans’ strong marking forwards) and is second in the league for tackles. When it comes to disposals, there is a large gulf between the teams. The Eagles are also not favoured by the umpires, being the third-least free-kick-winning team in the GVL. They are ranked fourth for clearances, and the Swans are just eighth in the league. Mansfield has lost only two of its eight first quarters this year, so the start of this match will be important. The Swans are also good starters, and R8 was the first time this year they had lost both the first and second quarters on the scoreboard. The Swans, despite being second up until the weekend, have not dominated many opponents to any great degree. Jono Moore returned last week for the Swans, while Mansfield welcomes back Harry Mahoney from Collingwood, along with 300-gamer James Herridge and captain Jayden Howes. Game time: 2pm Saturday, Mansfield Recreation Reserve
Prediction: Shepp Swans by 11 points. A live stream of this game will be available on Radio Mansfield
Echuca (4th) v Mooroopna (9th)
Mooroopna is another team that can cause an upset if the game is played on its terms — namely, when it is allowed to have a high handball game and launch from its backline. The Cats have lost games by 13 points (to third-ranked Rochester), 28 points (to Shepp Swans), and 27 points (to Euroa), and have only been totally dominated by Kyabram (a 70-point loss). They face an Echuca team which leads only one major statistical category this season (intercept marking) and is the team to receive the least assistance from the umpires (12th for free kicks). The Murray Bombers are ninth for uncontested marks and sit outside the top five for most categories. Without Jack McHale, Sam Reid, and Kane Morris, that clearance rating may well take a nosedive in coming weeks. The Cats have won the second-most free kicks this season and sit third on the tackling list. They do, however, struggle in the inside 50 space (10th) and are 11th for clearances this season. Mooroopna’s win on the weekend was the first time this season they had won every quarter of a game, while Echuca are having some real challenges with their last quarters. Despite beating the Swans on the weekend, it was the fourth game in a row where they had been outscored in the final quarter. Game time: 2pm Saturday, Victoria Park at Echuca. Prediction: Echuca by 28 points
Seymour (7th) v Benalla (10th)
Seymour and Benalla’s face off features a kick-happy Lions side and the second-from-bottom Saints, who have won more free kicks this year than any other team. The Lions have kicked the ball the fifth-most this season but are ranked 10th for total handballs. They have taken the fourth-most marks and are third for uncontested marks. Benalla is only top five in two categories — free kicks, of course, and the intercept marking count, where they are fifth thanks to the work of key defender Nick Warnock. Seymour has won its last four games after losing to Rochester by 79 points in the opening round, to the Swans by 38 points a week later, and by 44 points to Mansfield in R3. Since then, they’ve won five successive games but beaten only one top-six team. They are ranked ninth for contested ball and have only the seventh-most entries into the attacking 50. Benalla will take a little confidence into this weekend after Seymour lost its first game for a month, particularly given the Saints had won or drawn their last three last quarters before being outscored 35–9 on Saturday by Mansfield. Seymour has lost all but one of its eight last quarters this year, having started brilliantly in the last month before a 19–6 differential against Mooroopna on Saturday. Game time: 2pm Saturday, King’s Park at Seymour Prediction: Seymour to win by 37 points. A live stream of this game will be available on Seymour FM
Euroa (8th) v Kyabram (1st)
Kyabram is top three in every important statistical category apart from tackles, uncontested marks and free kicks. They lay only the seventh most tackles, but – in a quirk of this statistic – are the most prolific tackling team in the forward 50. They lay 15 tackles a game, on average, in the forward line and because of the amount of ball they have won so far this year haven’t been required to do a lot of tackling on a weekly basis. Their preference to kick the ball long means they are number one for marks inside 50. They have had the most Inside 50 entries, by far the most disposals and are third for intercept marks. The Bombers only black mark is the fact they have won the second least amount of free kicks this year. Euroa is a top six disposal team and, unlike at least four of the top six teams, love to handball. They have had the second most handballs of any team in the league, despite being sixth on the total disposal count. The Magpies struggle when it comes to contested ball and are 10th for marks. They have also had the second least amount of entries inside 50 of any team in the league. They are a strong tackling team (4th in the league) and win their fare share of free kicks (5th in the league). Game time: 2pm Saturday, at Memorial Oval, Euroa. Prediction: Kyabram by 52 points.
