Benalla (10th) v Shepp United (11th)
For a game between the 10th and 11th-ranked teams in the competition, this contest has plenty of interest, given the arrival and immediate impact of Guy Barnes on the Saints outfit and the encouraging signs of Shepp United in the previous three weeks.
Barnes, the former WAFL goalkicker who has played the last two games, kicked three goals last week in the 22-point win against Mooroopna. Playing alongside Nathan Wright (who kicked a season-best nine goals) and Jarrad Wright, he gave the Benalla attacking half a vibrant new look. After winning just six of the first 24 quarters (on the scoreboard) of the season, the Saints have won five of the last 12 and can continue that upward trend against the Demons. United’s last six weeks, while bringing just one victory, have not been the worst. After a 116-point flogging at the hands of Kyabram, they lost by just a goal in Round 5 against Seymour, ran Mooroopna to 18 points a week later, lost by just 9 points to second-ranked Rochester, and had a 108-point win against Tatura. After being smashed in the opening quarter of Saturday’s game against Echuca, when the Murray Bombers scored nine goals to United’s two, they were outscored by just five points in the second half of the game. Neither team will have any finals thoughts, but a win for United would take them up one rung, and a Saints victory could lift them to eighth spot on the ladder. Benalla will have an edge in the ruck, where Mark Marriott has been outstanding in 2025, while Chris Welsh’s match-up with United gun Jesse Cucinotta will also be a highlight. Benalla intercept-marking defender Nick Warnock will also be important as he attempts to prevent the ball getting to in-form United forward Kaedyn Napier.
Prediction: United by 11 points
LTTM: Round 14, 2024: United won by 39 points.
Shepparton (7th) v Shepp Swans (4th)
Shepp Swans will be hoping to avoid going the same way as Shepp Bears, who have fallen to seventh on the ladder after losing the last five games. They are coming off a bye, which they will hope is some sort of circuit breaker and will help them in the battle against the fourth-ranked Swans. The Bears have had a season of two halves after winning the first games of the season. Since then, they have played five of the top six teams and lost to them all, now sitting a game outside the top six with five of their final nine games against teams below them on the ladder. The Swans started the season even more impressively, winning their first seven games of the year. They have, however, followed the Bears’ example by losing the last three games – to Echuca by 17 points, Mansfield by 19 points, and Kyabram by 13 points. Those margins suggest the Swans are not too far off the mark, and their draw should allow them to end the year with 13 wins. After the Bears, they face Benalla (10th), Seymour (6th), Mooroopna (9th), Tatura (12th), and Euroa (8th). In two of their final three games, they face the two teams that sit first and second on the ladder. The Swans lost just three of their first 28 quarters of this season (Rounds 1–7), but in the last three weeks have lost more quarters than that two-month period. Shepparton will be relying on its hard-tackling midfield to lead it out of the wilderness, ranked as the top tackling team in the competition and second-best clearance team. The big differences between the two teams come in the contested disposal game, with the Swans preferring a high uncontested mark game and the Bears wanting to keep it in close. Shepparton is also a high handball team, while the Swans are ranked 11th by hand.
Prediction: Swans by 27 points.
LTTM: Round 17, 2024: Shepparton won by 90 points.
Echuca (3rd) v Seymour (6th)
Echuca couldn’t exactly be described as a sleeping giant, but the injury concerns the premier of the last three seasons has had this year have lessened its long-held air of invincibility. Despite these injuries to key players—including midfield bull Jack McHale, premiership captain Kane Morris and goalkicker Cooper Barber—the Murray Bombers sit third on the ladder and have lost only once this year: to unbeaten ladder leader Kyabram. They could win seven of their last eight games, if recent form is anything to go by, facing only two other teams inside the top six (Seymour this weekend and Kyabram in the second-last round). That would give them 16 wins for the year and, by my calculations, see them finish second on the ladder. All this with a few stars to come back into the team, having had Will Monahan on the sidelines on Saturday alongside Justin Hoffman and ruck duo Watson and O’Brien. Seymour’s 50 per cent winning record is probably indicative of where the Lions sit this year. They have two of the competition’s most prolific ball-winners—Jack Murphy and Nathan Beattie—but have a lack of high-quality ruck stocks and have conceded 100-plus points twice this year.
Prediction: Echuca by 31 points.
LTTM: Round 16, 2024: Echuca won by 104 points.
Mooroopna (9th) v Tatura (12th)
After starting its season with five straight defeats, the Cats would have been hopeful that wins against Shepp United and Seymour were a sign of a competitive second half to the season. They even started the Round 9 game against Echuca in style, with a six-goal quarter and 26-point lead—only to score just two behinds in the second half. That disappointing finish flowed into last weekend’s game against Benalla (which had just one win, against Tatura, before the weekend). The Cats gave up seven goals in that first quarter and, despite kicking eight themselves in the second term, still faced a five-point half-time deficit. They added Nathan Drummond to their forward line mix on the weekend with immediate results, but it may have been robbing Peter to pay Paul as they allowed Benalla only their second 100-point-plus score of the season. Drummond kicked five majors, despite having kicked only eight goals in his last 17 games with the Cats. He was a perfect foil for Logan Campbell, who also registered a personal best at GVL senior level by bagging six majors. Campbell kicked three goals in Round 16 last year, but he found himself in rare air on Saturday. Facing up against the winless Tatura on Saturday, the Cats pair may have a chance to repeat the weekend’s dose—although they will be hoping their efforts reap better rewards. It is also the Cats’ last game against a team outside of finals contention for a month. They face Mansfield (5th), Rochester (2nd), the Swans (4th), and Shepparton (one game outside the top six in 7th) in the month following the Bulldogs game. Tatura is coming off the bye and, given the results so far this year, will probably be eyeing off the Round 16 game against the much-improved Benalla as their only chance of a win. They face all six teams in the top echelon of the competition in the run to the season’s end.
Prediction: Mooroopna by 71 points.
LTTM: Round 13, 2024: Mooroopna won by 20 points.
Rochester (2nd) v Kyabram (1st)
I may not be giving Rochester enough credit for its 9-1 start to the 2025 season, but this game doesn’t quite feel like a first versus second battle. The Tigers sit second but have only the fourth-best attacking record after scoring sub-80-point totals in half of their games this season. Amazingly, all but one of those have resulted in wins—and the other one was just a nine-point loss to another top-six team, Shepparton Swans. Defensively, the Tigers are the best team in the league, key defenders Dylan Gordon and Ryan O’Keefe supported by the in-form Andy Henderson and uncompromising flankers Nathan McCarty and Grant Fuller. Unbeaten Kyabram is clearly the competition’s best attacking team, failing to register triple figures in only three of their 10 wins this season. They boast five of the top 14 goalkickers in the competition, even though Charlie Barnett (29 goals) was kept goalless for the first time this year on Saturday against the Swans. Riley Ironside (only 3 goals in the last 3 games) has 26 goals, Aidan Robinson and Tom Holman 19, while goalkicking midfielder Archie Watt (17). Two of the last three weeks, however, have been narrow escapes for the ladder leader. They trailed the Swans at ¼ time before kicking 13 goals to eight after the first break and won by 13 points. A fortnight earlier they managed just 10 goals and also trailed at the first change. A feature of the game will be Hamish Hooppell’s battle with Kyabram co-captains Zac Norris and Aidan Robinson. Robinson kicked half of his team’s goals (a career-high 7) against the Swans on Saturday, making it 19 goals for the year. In the preceding 68 senior games with Kyabram, he had kicked only 20 goals.
Prediction: Kyabram by 29 points
LTTM: Round 12, 2024: Rochester won by 11 points.
