Another neat miss this week (11 out of 12 in GVL football and netball tipping), but before I do a lap of the oval high fiving my adoring public there were a few results that were well beyond my expectations.
I tipped Kyabram to beat Tatura by 63 points, but with 48 shots on goal (lucky they didn’t kick straight) the margin blew out to 128. The Swans beat Seymour by 38 (I tipped them to win by 19), and Rochester scraped in by seven points (my tip was 36 points).
On the other three I was pretty close – I was just five points out on my prediction for Echuca to beat Euroa by 35, was just three points away from a perfect result in the Mansfield and United game, and my tip for the Bears to win by 111 was a little overblown (they were 87 point winners).
Kyabram v Benalla
Archie Watt was on the sidelines with an ice pack late in the Bombers win against Tatura on Saturday, but was on the way to a repeat of his round one heroics when he left the ground.
It is uncertain whether he will line up against Benalla, but his 15 disposal, five inside 50 and one goal second term was breath-taking.
Benalla, which has lost by 101 and 87 points to the Swans and Bears, may also have to content with Anthony Depasquale if his five goal game. Depasquale could have finished with double figures in the goals column if he had of kicked straight.
He kicked eight behinds, had 24 disposals and took eight marks inside 50. He was supported by seven goals from unlikely sources in Charlie Barnett (four) and Kane Herbert (three). Both those players hit the target with each of their shots on goal.
The same couldn’t be said of Lancaster recruit, Zac Cerrone, who kicked three behinds from his 16 disposal game and also had five inside 50s.
The stats from the opening two rounds show two highly mismatched teams – Kyabram has had 763 possessions and 220 marks in the opening two weeks, while Benalla has 581 and 118 in those two columns.
On a positive note Nathan Wright now has seven goals in two games for the Saints, including two in the last quarter of Saturday’s game.
Jordan Wolff’s form in the front half was also encouraging, taking four marks inside 50, having 21 touches and kicking 2.3.
The game is at 5pm at Kyabram Recreation Reserve on Good Friday.
My prediction is for Kyabram to take the win by 113 points.
LAST TIME THEY MET
(Round 10, 2024: Kyabram won by 51 points)
-Kyabram took 50 more marks, won the tackle count 65-48 and had 64 more uncontested possessions.
-Benalla received eight more free kicks, won the clearance count by six and had only five less inside 50 entries.
-Bailey Tome was the outstanding player with 170 ranking points, including 11 tackles, seven clearances and a goal.
-Will Wild had his best senior game of the year with four goals and took five marks inside 50, Anthony Depasquale also kicked four goals, but missed three shots on goal.
-Nick Mellington had 25 disposals, 10 clearances and kicked a goal, supported by a 32 disposal-10 mark game from James Martinello.
Shepparton United v Shepparton
Shepparton United continued its upward trajectory at Deakin Reserve on Saturday, kicking 11 goals to eight after quarter time.
Unfortunately it gave Mansfield a four goal head start and couldn’t make up the lost ground.
Very little separated United and Mansfield on the statistical card, with United having to work hard in defence to stay in the game. Mitchell Trevaskis’s 24-disposal game featured nine marks and five rebound 50s, while Fraser Hicks had 23 touches and cleared the ball from defence on six occasions.
At the other end of the scale the Bears have won both their first two games handsomely, by a combined 188 points and had Luke Smith back to his best on Saturday.
Smith had 25 disposals and kicked five goals, but had to play second fiddle to Lewis McShane, who now has 11 goals from two games and on Saturday could have been an even more dominant figure.
He took four marks inside 50 and kicked 6.3, Jacob Watts also off target with three behinds. Watts and Adam Decicco both had 33 disposals, the former having 10 inside 50s.
Xavier Stevenson collected 35 disposals, following on from 38 touches against Tatura in week one and kicked two goals to go with eight inside 50s and 11 marks.
The game is at 6pm on Good Friday at Deakin Reserve.
My prediction is for Shepparton Bears to take the win by 58 points.
LAST TIME THEY MET
(Round 13, 2024: Shepparton beat United by 61 points)
-A highly inaccurate Bears kicked 2.8 in the third term and finished with only 15 goals from 33 scoring shots.
-United won very few statistical categories, but had just 42 less disposals.
-Ash Holland dominated (61 hit outs, 16 disposals, 11 marks and two goals), Shepparton winning the hit outs by 43 and +11 in the hit outs to advantage count.
-Luke Smith missed all four shots he had on goal, but had 11 clearances, a game high 39 disposals and laid five effective tackles (183 ranking points). Adam Decicco had 180 ranking points.
-Kaedyn Napier kicked four goals straight, from just seven disposals. Liam and Joel Serra had 52 disposals between them, while Fraser Hicks had a game high eight rebounds 50s for United.
Mansfield v Seymour
Mansfield appears to have pulled the right strings with its recruiting, with Nick Gray picking up another 27 disposals and Matt King reaching 70 disposals in two weeks, thanks to another 33-touch game.
Coach Jack Hutchins has seven goals from two games, credited with just five kicks for his four goals at Deakin Reserve on Saturday.
William Hogan offers great support and returned a game high five marks inside 50.
Gus Van de Heyden gave his midfielders first use with 28 hit-outs and helped the Eagles win the clearance count by 11, while Dirk Koenen took a game-high five intercept marks.
Seymour is a high-possession team and despite losing by 38 points had 25 more disposals than the Swans and took 30 more marks. They had just two less clearances for the game, but were -13 on the inside 50 count.
Things also went Seymour’s way in the free kick count, having a +10 count by the end of the game.
Nathan Beattie followed up a great first game for the Lions with a game high 38 disposals on Saturday, his 13 disposal opening term followed by a third quarter that included four tackles and a goal.
Seymour has back to back games against its old Waranga North East League rivals, Mansfield and Euroa, before facing an improved United and the struggling Tatura.
My prediction is for Mansfield to take the win by 31 points.
LAST TIME THEY MET
(Round 11, 2024: Seymour won by 20 points)
-Riley Mason was the difference between the two teams. He could have been even more dominant, if not for a six goal and four behind return from 10 scoring shots. He had 20 disposals, took eight marks inside 50 and had 144 ranking points.
-Lewis Lubeck was also off target, kicking 2.4 from his 17 disposals.
-David Mundy had 26 disposals, five tackles, five clearances and 127 ranking points.
-Dirk Koenen had 146 ranking points, including 10 marks, 25 disposals and six tackles.
-Mansfield took more marks, had more hit outs and broke even in the clearance count and tackles.
-Seymour was paid 13 more free kicks for the game and had 14 more inside 50 entries.
Echuca v Tatura
Tatura goes into this weekend’s game against the premier of the last three seasons with just seven goals from two games and a combined losing margin of 229 points.
The Bulldogs are one of the have-nots of the competition, at least at this stage, with six teams having won both their games and six teams having lost both theirs.
Curtis and Christopher Ryan will be under the pump again, along with Andrew Ciavarella. They combined for 23 rebound 50s against Kyabram, Curtis Ryan also the team’s most prolific ball winner with 26.
Charlie Murdoch was among the younger players to show their is hope on the horizon, while recruit Adam Enever continued to shine as part of an under the pump defence.
Echuca had only six more disposals than Euroa, but made the most of every possession and had 28 more inside 50 entries.
Jack McHale had 27 touches for the second week in a row, while Cooper Barber added another five goals to his two round one goals.
Without Kane Morris Leo O’Brien and Lacie Watson combined for a 61-22 hit out count, which led to a +11 clearance count.
My prediction is for Echuca to take the win by 92 points.
LAST TIME THEY MET
(Round nine, 2024: Echuca beat Tatura by 86 points)
-Echuca had 97 more disposals, 19 more inside 50s and 17 more clearances.
-Tatura did win the tackle count by 27, laying 72 tackles to Echuca’s 45.
-Nine Echuca players had 100-plus raking points, topped by William Monahan’s 147. He kicked three goals, had seven clearances, took seven marks inside 50 and had 27 disposals.
-Jackson Stewart laid six tackles and had 25 disposals, while Angus Byrne shared rucking duties with a team high 27 hit outs.
-Ethan Penrith had 31 disposals and 127 ranking points for Tatura, while Mitch Elliotts 26 disposals, eight clearances and one goal was next best.
Shepparton Swans v Mooroopna
Mark Kovacevic’s return for the Swans had an immediate impact, his 35 hit outs, six clearances and 14 disposals complementing a quality mid-field.
Oliver Warburton followed up his spectacular debut with another 32 possession game, kicking one goal and racking up 142 points.
Seven goals in two weeks from Andrew Riordan will present some concerns for Mooroopna, who will have to content with Nathan Rachele and Joeve Cooper as well in the Swans attack.
Riordan did much more than kick goals, collecting 17 disposals, taking 12 marks and laying six tackles (three in forward 50 to complement Cooper’s five F50 tackles).
Luke Davies continues his climb into the elite ranks of running half backs in the GVL, having 22 disposals, taking nine marks and registering a game high 9 one percenters.
Mooroopna was highly impressive against Rochester and despite not leading at any of the three changes did have more disposals, more marks, more hit outs and more tackles than the Tigers.
Isaac Dowling and Kari Madgwick (who now has 70 disposals from two games) were outstanding, while Ethan Hunt had seven clearances, five rebound 50s and three inside 50s.
Jack Johnston looks to have found his place with Keelin Betson out of the team. He rucked for a return of 48 hit outs, 16 disposals and pushed forward to kick two goals.
Teenager Reece Evans kicked a goal, had 15 disposals and laid three effective tackles.
The game is at 2pm on Good Friday at Princess Park. Rochester has two wins from as many games, but seemed to be stuck in second or third gear against the Cats on Saturday.
My prediction is for the Swans to take the win by 22 points.
LAST TIME THEY MET
(Round 15, 2024: Mooroopna won by 16 points)
-An unusually low disposal count for Mooroopna (319) was matched by a low marking game (won by the Swans 68-62).
-Mooroopna took twice as many marks inside 50, but had four less entries for the game.
-The Swans won the tackle count by a massive 30, laying 85 tackles for the game.
-They also won the hit outs by 33, but Mooroopna won the clearance count by two.
Mitchell Bell had his best game for the season, with 51 hit outs.
-Zac Alderton laid nine effective tackles, 12 clearances and 32 disposals (game high 170 ranking points).
– Coby James had a game high 12 inside 50s, finishing with 26 disposals and seven clearances.
Rochester v Euroa
With the three Hamilton boys, Will, Hugh and GWS recruit Cooper playing together for the first time the Tigers led by 2 points at quarter time, by five points at half time and by 14 points at the final change – before winning by seven points.
Cooper Hamilton had 27 disposals, seven clearances and five tackles, while Wil and Hugh kicked two goals apiece.
Euroa will have to contend with the clearance, tackling and ball winning machine that is Mitch Trewhella. In the opening two rounds he has racked up 57 disposals, 19 tackles, 19 clearances and kicked two goals.
Rochester’s defence will also cause Euroa problems, Dylan Gordon again good with seven rebound 50s for the winners. He will have to contend with Jett Trotter, who after going goalless against Echuca in round one kicked three goals from 18 disposals and took five marks inside 50 on the weekend.
He had support from Will Creevey (26 touches and nine clearances) and Cohen Paul (who took 12 marks, five of those intercept marks, after being the Magpies best player in round one)
The game is at 5pm on Rochester’s Moon Oval on Good Friday.
My prediction is for Rochester to take the win by 14 points.
LAST TIME THEY MET
(Elimination final 2024: Rochester won by 25 points)
-Despite losing, Euroa had five more disposals and laid a massive 34 more tackles for the game (90 total). The Magpies also had three more inside 50 entries.
-Rochester took 20 more marks, including five more inside 50. The Tigers also won the clearance count by seven.
-Lachie Hill’s 26 disposals (22 contested), seven effective tackles, and eight clearances could have been even more telling if he hadn’t of finished with one goal and three behinds.
-Nathan Stewart had his best game of the season, 20 disposals, 24 hit outs, eight effective tackles and a goal.
-Mitch Trewhella had 165 ranks points, but Mitch Cricelli was not far behind, 16 disposals, 24 hit outs, a massive seven marks inside 50 and six goals straight.
My prediction is for the Swans to take the win by 22 points.
