My tipping round started pretty well on Friday. I was just eight points out with my Kyabram and Benalla prediction—tipping Kyabram by 113 points (they won by 105). I was only one point off in the Rochester and Euroa game, which ended in a 15-point win for the Tigers. I was just six points out in the Shepp Swans and Mooroopna game—the Swans won by 28 (I predicted 22). And finally, I was 16 points off with the Bears’ win against United (they won by 74 points). On Saturday, I tipped Mansfield to win by 44 and they won by 31. And finally, to complete the straight six, I underestimated Echuca—they won by 161 points (I tipped 92).
Euroa v Seymour
The Magpies are not used to starting a season with three defeats, having been grand finalists in 2022 and finishing fourth in both of the past two seasons. Seymour finished the 2023 season with just two losses but began last year with nine defeats from their first ten games. They currently sit eighth and tenth on the ladder respectively, but this weekend one of the former Waranga North East League rivals will break their duck.
Two former Murray Bushrangers—Seymour’s Nick Quigg and Euroa’s Cohen Paul—are among the players to watch. Quigg played two senior GVL games in 2021, six in 2022 (along with 14 for the Bushrangers), and then played 14 VFL games for GWS last year. His Round 2 return of 33 disposals, 10 marks, six clearances, four rebound 50s and four inside 50s in a 38-point loss is a sign of things to come. Paul played two senior games for Euroa in 2022 (along with 14 for the Bushrangers), having debuted with 11 senior games for the Magpies in 2023. Last weekend, he had 26 disposals and five rebound 50s, after opening the season with 33 disposals, five rebounds, and five hit-outs. Euroa has also been well served by Nic Burke, who had another 30-disposal game in the loss to Rochester, along with 7 rebound 50s. Scoring has been tough for both teams. Euroa’s leading goalkicker, Jett Trotter, has just four goals for the season, while Seymour’s best return has come from Nathan Fowler (three goals). Prediction: Euroa by 11 points. Last time they met (LTTM), Round 9, 2024 – Euroa won by 10 points.
Tatura v Shepparton Swans
Three games into his senior football career, Oliver Warburton already has two best-on-ground honours and is leading a strong resurgence from last year’s eighth-placed Swans. In the Good Friday game against Mooroopna, the fourth-generation star collected 30+ possessions for the third straight week. He debuted with 30 disposals and followed up with 32 against Seymour in Round 2. With fellow lively midfielders Tyreece Collison, Zac Alderton, and Zac Clohesy, the former Bushranger looks set to guide the Swans to a four-game winning streak. Last year, they managed three consecutive wins late in the season. The Swans also lost five games by less than a goal last year. A win against the struggling Bulldogs on Friday night will see the Swans remain unbeaten and close in on their seven wins from 2024. Tatura has had almost 100 fewer inside 50 entries than its three opponents this season, is -350 in disposals, and has been -40 in total marks in every game. On the flip side, the Bulldogs have four of the top rebound 50 players: Curtis and Christopher Ryan, Michael Archer, and Andrew Ciavarella. The Swans have dominated their front half, +45 for inside 50s and +50 for marks inside 50 across their three matches. Impressively efficient, they’ve lost two disposal counts despite being unbeaten and were beaten in clearances twice. Prediction: Shepparton Swans by 108 points.
LTTM, Round 10, 2024 – Swans won by 97 points.
Rochester v Mansfield
This shapes as the match of the round. The Eagles are flying high with three straight wins, and the Tigers have carried over their strong 2024 form—both remain unbeaten. Statistically, these teams are almost identical—within two goals of each other in both points for and against. Matt King, Nick Gray, Mitch Lewis, and Callum Brown have made an immediate impact for Mansfield, while Rochester has added a former GWS midfielder to last year’s finals outfit. Cooper Hamilton joins a high-functioning midfield led by Mitch Trewhella, who’ll go head-to-head with Mansfield’s rising talent. Rochester, however, has only narrowly beaten Mooroopna and Euroa. They rely heavily on an experienced and miserly defence, but Dylan Gordon and Ryan O’Keefe will be tested by the GVL’s top aerialist, Ben Christopher. Christopher returned with four goals on Saturday, after kicking 24 in eight games last season. He did not play when the sides met mid-season last year. Prediction: Rochester by 3 points. LTTM, Round 10, 2024 – Rochester won by 40 points.
Shepparton United v Kyabram
Back-to-back 160-point totals have the Bombers sitting atop the ladder, one of six unbeaten teams to start the season. What’s changed for Kyabram this year is the spread of goalkickers—Anthony Depasquale (10), Charlie Barnett (9), Tom Holman (7), Riley Ironside (6), and both Mick Mattingly and Kaine Herbert (5). Archie Watt, who has four goals from six-and-a-half quarters, missed last weekend with an ankle injury. Last season, only Depasquale (72), Mangan (28), and Herbert (20) cracked 20+ goals. The increased scoring depth presents a major challenge for United, who conceded 100 points for the first time this season in Friday’s loss to the Shepparton Bears. In 2023, they gave up 100+ points in 10 of their 18 games. Mick Mattingly set an unofficial ranking points record last week with 241 points against Benalla—42 touches, 10 marks (five inside 50), six tackles, nine clearances, and three goals (plus two behinds). United forward Kaedyn Napier will aim for better accuracy this week after a 1.4 return against the Bears. He and Kyle Clarke each took three inside 50 marks, but United had 17 fewer entries. Prediction: Kyabram by 59 points. LTTM, Round 15, 2024 – Kyabram won by 125 points.
Benalla v Echuca
Nathan Wright has been a shining light for Benalla in a bleak start to 2025, with 11 goals in three games. The Queenslander and his team have conceded 355 points already, and now face the reigning premier, who remains unbeaten. Things likely can’t get worse than the 2022 result—Benalla failed to kick a goal in a 157–4 loss. In 2023, they suffered 96- and 71-point defeats, and a 101-point loss last season. Nicholas Warnock provided a highlight last week with 19 disposals, 12 marks (five intercepts), and five tackles—his move to defence earning 130 ranking points. Before their 180-point Round 3 total, Echuca hadn’t reached triple figures against Shepparton United or Euroa. They kicked an accurate 15.5 by halftime and held Tatura scoreless in the second term. They were more wasteful in the second half, returning 12.13. As usual, Echuca is sharing the load. Four players are in the top 20 goalkickers—Hugh Byrne (10 goals), Will Monahan, Cooper Barber, and Sam Edgar. Prediction: Echuca by 135 points. LTTM, Round 8, 2024 – Echuca won by 101 points.
Mooroopna v Shepparton Bears
Despite being winless, there have been positives for Mooroopna across three rounds. They haven’t conceded 100 points in any match, outscored the Swans in the second half last week, led Mansfield by 18 at quarter time in Round 1 (before scoring just one more goal), and won the second half against Rochester in Round 2. Shepparton, meanwhile, has sent a message after last year’s grand final loss to Echuca. They’ll get a shot at redemption in Round 5, a replay of the 2024 decider at Deakin Reserve. Lewis McShane is on track for a career-best year, with 15 goals in three weeks. He took five inside 50 marks on Friday against United, while Luke Smith, Tom Clurey, and Trent Herbert combined for nine. The Bears dominate the clearances, led by Ned Byrne (12), Ash Holland (10), Luke Smith and Xavier Stevenson (5 each). Prediction: Shepparton Bears by 48 points. LTTM, Semi-final, 2024 – Bears won by 64 points.
